The Work Is Not Done: Colonial Design, a Claimed Mandate, and the Difference Between a Cause and a Collection Plate

By Mike Arnold

In advocating an end to the jihad emptying Christian villages across Nigeria, I have realized a harder truth than most activists are willing to say out loud: the structure of the Nigerian state is itself a large part of the killing. 

The British did not build a workable nation. They bolted together peoples who had never consented to a single political destiny—Hausa-Fulani emirates, Igbo republics, Yoruba kingdoms, Ijaw, Tiv, Idoma, and dozens more—for colonial administrative convenience. What they left, on purpose, was a machine that would forever fight itself. That machine is still running. The result is mass graves, burned churches, seized farmland, millions of displaced, and a dismal standard of living in a land full of abundant natural wealth and amazing people.

I have said at a U.S. congressional briefing what I will say here without hedging: I believe Nigeria’s separation is inevitable and just. And I believe it cannot come soon enough.

I have stood with members of multiple tribes who wish to be free from that colonial contraption. All of them have a good case, and deserve the fundamental human right of self determination. None, in my judgment, have a stronger case, or a more anguished and deliberately buried history, than Biafrans.

Where the case is strongest, passions run hottest. Where passions run hottest, the door is wide open for manipulation.

In 2024, a network operating out of Finland conducted what it called a self-referendum. They organized it, ran it, counted it, and announced it. Their published result claimed more than 50 million votes for separation. Countless sincere people poured time, money, and hope into that effort. 

Done right, a referendum can be a real step toward self-determination. Note the two conditions: it must be done right, and even then it is a step, not a finished state.

The organizer, Simon Ekpa, was sentenced to six years in prison by a Finnish district court in September 2025. Rival factions operating in the United States have since seized his mantle, claimed authority from those numbers, and asked people to send them money. They have fought each other in court and continue to fight online. 

Both speak as if they already govern an independent Biafra. They do not. Their declarations have not delivered a recognized state, a seat at the UN, or a settled border. Corporate paperwork, lobbying filings, and official-sounding titles do not supply what is missing.

Here is an objective report as to why that exercise cannot simply be accepted by the world as a mandate for independence:

• The numbers demand an explanation. INEC’s 2023 register for the South-East was 10.91 million. Add the South-South and the combined register was approximately 25.35 million. Those figures are not a census of every adult or a ceiling on a separately defined diaspora electorate. But a claimed fifty million yes votes is nearly twice that combined register. Where did those voters come from? What territory was counted? What ages? What diaspora eligibility rules? “Diaspora” is not a magic word that makes the arithmetic explain itself. And Ijaw, Ibibio, Efik, Ogoni, Urhobo, and other peoples do not become consenting members of a new country because someone needs them to make the numbers work. Nobody gets annexed by slogan.

• They were judge, clerk, and returning officer. The organization promoting the result also ran the exercise and announced victory. Where is the independent audit? Where are the published findings verifying unique, eligible voters? What records can qualified observers inspect? The result sheet gives totals and percentages. It does not answer those questions. Protecting voters’ privacy is necessary. It is not an excuse to make verification impossible.

• Who, exactly, was eligible? Residents of a defined territory? People claiming ancestry? Adults abroad? What evidence established eligibility? How were underage entries and duplicate votes excluded? A claimed referendum must answer two elementary questions: who was allowed to vote, and how do we know each person voted once? Without those answers, calling it a referendum does not make its result credible.

• Unilateral online and in-house polls do not create states. International practice is ugly and slow, but a result needs more than an announcement to have legal effect. A claimed 99.95 percent victory from an exile apparatus does not, by itself, bind Abuja, Washington, Brasília, or the AU. What law or agreement gives this result effect? Who has accepted it as establishing independence? Symbolic applause in a state assembly is not the same as recognition. FARA registration is disclosure of agency, not diplomatic credentials.

Read these for what they are: Honest questions that will be asked by ANY deliberative body, any honest journalist, anyone who wants to know the truth. They are not an attack. They are an inquiry. And true leader who claims a mandate based on the numbers they present must be prepared to answer, and not reflexively attack anyone who asks.

The fact that these questions remain unanswered — and thus, the results of the self-referendum are therefore effectively meaningless in gaining recognition for an independent Biafra — is a bitter disappointment for everyone who put hope in the effort. It is still the truth. No amount of screaming, insulting, or shooting the messenger changes arithmetic or law.

I recently put forward a petition asking President Trump to support a path of actual self-determination for all Nigeria’s peoples: first, a free and fair 2027 election (necessary for any peaceful transition); second, a process that lets the people determine a new constitution (so that separation, if chosen, has a legal path rather than a permanent insurgency); third, a properly authorized and credibly conducted referendum process, with international observation, to determine political futures and agreed boundaries. That is a proposal for doing the necessary work in a way that can deliver actual, tangible, permanent results. 

When I posted it, one of these faction leaders publicly announced that “Biafrans”—whom she claims to represent as a bloc—wanted nothing to do with it, because the matter was already settled in 2024. She treated the petition as an insult. That is not strategy. In reality, tragically, it is actually a demand for inaction: tell people the work is finished, treat every question as treason … and keep the donations moving. Anyone who believes the flag is already flying will stop doing the hard work that would actually raise one.

I answered her post with the simple truth: treating that 2024 effort as the end of the matter is a disservice to the cause she claims to represent. A sincere effort is not a completed mandate. There is still a great deal of work to do, and it must be done in a form the world can recognize and act on.

The response from that corner was not a defense of methodology. It was a pile-on of threats and insults — declaring me an enemy, a Tinubu agent, even the devil himself. None of it validated the methodolgy, or identified any law that would make the result binding. A real mandate should survive questions.

If your stature (and fundraising) rest on an incredible number, expect people to ask how you got it, and don’t attack them for doing so.

So the question is simple, and I will leave it on the table:

Who is the real threat to the cause?

The one who says, “The work is done! Anyone who questions the count is an enemy … and keep sending me money”—while attacking anyone who suggests there is more work still to do?

Or the one who says, “The cause is just. The history is real. And if you want a country in Biafra instead of a fundraising office in America, then let’s roll up our sleeves and do the needful”?

Watch the comments. See whether they argue the methodology, the map, the count, the law—or whether they only attack the person asking them to prove what they claim.

I will debate the merits all day. 

Insults and attacks are a confession. They tell you who would rather defend the myth than answer for the lack of tangible results.

#EarthShaker